Soul food for thought

Written by Adrian Tan, author of The Teenage Textbook (1988), was the guest-of-honour at a recent NTU convocation ceremony. This was his speech to the graduating class of 2008.

I must say thank you to the faculty and staff of the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information for inviting me to give your convocation address. It’s a wonderful honour and a privilege for me to speak here for ten minutes without fear of contradiction, defamation or retaliation.

I say this as a Singaporean and more so as a husband.My wife is a wonderful person and perfect in every way except one. She is the editor of a magazine. She corrects people for a living. She has honed her expert skills over a quarter of a century, mostly by practising at home during conversations between her and me.On the other hand, I am a litigator. Essentially, I spend my day telling people how wrong they are. I make my living being disagreeable.Nevertheless, there is perfect harmony in our matrimonial home. That is because when an editor and a litigator have an argument, the one who triumphs is always the wife.And so I want to start by giving one piece of advice to the men: when you’ve already won her heart, you don’t need to win every argument.

Marriage is considered one milestone of life. Some of you may already be married. Some of you may never be married. Some of you will be married. Some of you will enjoy the experience so much, you will be married many, many times. Good for you.

The next big milestone in your life is today: your graduation. The end of education. You’re done learning.You’ve probably been told the big lie that “Learning is a lifelong process” and that therefore you will continue studying and taking masters’ degrees and doctorates and professorships and so on. You know the sort of people who tell you that? Teachers. Don’t you think there is some measure of conflict of interest? They are in the business of learning, after all. Where would they be without you? They need you to be repeat customers.

The good news is that they’re wrong.The bad news is that you don’t need further education because your entire life is over. It is gone. That may come as a shock to some of you. You’re in your teens or early twenties. People may tell you that you will live to be 70, 80, 90 years old.

That is your life expectancy.I love that term: life expectancy. We all understand the term to mean the average life span of a group of people. But I’m here to talk about a bigger idea, which is what you expect from your life.You may be very happy to know that Singapore is currently ranked as the country with the third highest life expectancy. We are behind Andorra and Japan, and tied with San Marino. It seems quite clear why people in those countries, and ours, live so long. We share one thing in common: our football teams are all hopeless. There’s very little danger of any of our citizens having their pulses raised by watching us play in the World Cup. Spectators are more likely to be lulled into a gentle and restful nap.

Singaporeans have a life expectancy of 81.8 years. Singapore men live to an average of 79.21 years, while Singapore women live more than five years longer, probably to take into account the additional time they need to spend in the bathroom.So here you are, in your twenties, thinking that you’ll have another 40 years to go. Four decades in which to live long and prosper.Bad news. Read the papers. There are people dropping dead when they’re 50, 40, 30 years old. Or quite possibly just after finishing their convocation. They would be very disappointed that they didn’t meet their life expectancy.I’m here to tell you this.

Forget about your life expectancy.After all, it’s calculated based on an average. And you never, ever want to expect being average.Revisit those expectations. You might be looking forward to working, falling in love, marrying, raising a family. You are told that, as graduates, you should expect to find a job paying so much, where your hours are so much, where your responsibilities are so much.That is what is expected of you. And if you live up to it, it will be an awful waste.If you expect that, you will be limiting yourself. You will be living your life according to boundaries set by average people.

I have nothing against average people. But no one should aspire to be them. And you don’t need years of education by the best minds in Singapore to prepare you to be average.What you should prepare for is mess. Life’s a mess. You are not entitled to expect anything from it. Life is not fair. Everything does not balance out in the end. Life happens, and you have no control over it. Good and bad things happen to you day by day, hour by hour, moment by moment. Your degree is a poor armour against fate.Don’t expect anything.

Erase all life expectancies. Just live. Your life is over as of today.

At this point in time, you have grown as tall as you will ever be, you are physically the fittest you will ever be in your entire life and you are probably looking the best that you will ever look. This is as good as it gets. It is all downhill from here. Or up. No one knows.What does this mean for you? It is good that your life is over.Since your life is over, you are free. Let me tell you the many wonderful things that you can do when you are free.The most important is this: do not work.Work is anything that you are compelled to do. By its very nature, it is undesirable.Work kills. The Japanese have a term “Karoshi”, which means death from overwork. That’s the most dramatic form of how work can kill. But it can also kill you in more subtle ways. If you work, then day by day, bit by bit, your soul is chipped away, disintegrating until there’s nothing left. A rock has been ground into sand and dust.There’s a common misconception that work is necessary. You will meet people working at miserable jobs. They tell you they are “making a living”. No, they’re not. They’re dying, frittering away their fast-extinguishing lives doing things which are, at best, meaningless and, at worst, harmful.People will tell you that work ennobles you, that work lends you a certain dignity. Work makes you free. The slogan “Arbeit macht frei” was placed at the entrances to a number of Nazi concentration camps. Utter nonsense.Do not waste the vast majority of your life doing something you hate so that you can spend the small remainder sliver of your life in modest comfort. You may never reach that end anyway.Resist the temptation to get a job. Instead, play. Find something you enjoy doing. Do it. Over and over again. You will become good at it for two reasons: you like it, and you do it often. Soon, that will have value in itself.I like arguing, and I love language. So, I became a litigator. I enjoy it and I would do it for free. If I didn’t do that, I would’ve been in some other type of work that still involved writing fiction – probably a sports journalist.So what should you do? You will find your own niche. I don’t imagine you will need to look very hard. By this time in your life, you will have a very good idea of what you will want to do. In fact, I’ll go further and say the ideal situation would be that you will not be able to stop yourself pursuing your passions. By this time you should know what your obsessions are. If you enjoy showing off your knowledge and feeling superior, you might become a teacher.Find that pursuit that will energise you, consume you, become an obsession. Each day, you must rise with a restless enthusiasm. If you don’t, you are working.Most of you will end up in activities which involve communication.

To those of you I have a second message: be wary of the truth. I’m not asking you to speak it, or write it, for there are times when it is dangerous or impossible to do those things. The truth has a great capacity to offend and injure, and you will find that the closer you are to someone, the more care you must take to disguise or even conceal the truth. Often, there is great virtue in being evasive, or equivocating. There is also great skill. Any child can blurt out the truth, without thought to the consequences. It takes great maturity to appreciate the value of silence.In order to be wary of the truth, you must first know it. That requires great frankness to yourself. Never fool the person in the mirror.

I have told you that your life is over, that you should not work, and that you should avoid telling the truth. I now say this to you: be hated.It’s not as easy as it sounds. Do you know anyone who hates you? Yet every great figure who has contributed to the human race has been hated, not just by one person, but often by a great many. That hatred is so strong it has caused those great figures to be shunned, abused, murdered and in one famous instance, nailed to a cross.

One does not have to be evil to be hated. In fact, it’s often the case that one is hated precisely because one is trying to do right by one’s own convictions. It is far too easy to be liked, one merely has to be accommodating and hold no strong convictions. Then one will gravitate towards the centre and settle into the average. That cannot be your role. There are a great many bad people in the world, and if you are not offending them, you must be bad yourself. Popularity is a sure sign that you are doing something wrong.

The other side of the coin is this: fall in love.I didn’t say “be loved”. That requires too much compromise. If one changes one’s looks, personality and values, one can be loved by anyone.Rather, I exhort you to love another human being. It may seem odd for me to tell you this. You may expect it to happen naturally, without deliberation. That is false. Modern society is anti-love. We’ve taken a microscope to everyone to bring out their flaws and shortcomings. It far easier to find a reason not to love someone, than otherwise. Rejection requires only one reason. Love requires complete acceptance. It is hard work – the only kind of work that I find palatable.Loving someone has great benefits. There is admiration, learning, attraction and something which, for the want of a better word, we call happiness. In loving someone, we become inspired to better ourselves in every way. We learn the truth worthlessness of material things. We celebrate being human. Loving is good for the soul.Loving someone is therefore very important, and it is also important to choose the right person. Despite popular culture, love doesn’t happen by chance, at first sight, across a crowded dance floor. It grows slowly, sinking roots first before branching and blossoming. It is not a silly weed, but a mighty tree that weathers every storm.You will find, that when you have someone to love, that the face is less important than the brain, and the body is less important than the heart.You will also find that it is no great tragedy if your love is not reciprocated. You are not doing it to be loved back. Its value is to inspire you.Finally, you will find that there is no half-measure when it comes to loving someone. You either don’t, or you do with every cell in your body, completely and utterly, without reservation or apology. It consumes you, and you are reborn, al

Still the same

I am not into this bullish hype.

Still keeping my views that this rally is not the start of a new bull.

2 reasons. And that's the only 2.

1. Wave structure since Mar 09 is corrective, a double zigzag 5-3-5 x 5-3-5 or abc x abc. A bull market is impulsive and waves will be 1,2,3,4,5.

2. Vix is forming a bullish positive divergence on weekly charts which portends higher volatility ahead.

As per my previous post, I foresee a bullish breakout on Gold and it happened. I am long term bullish on commodities and precious metals.

If Fed is ready to increase interest rates to prevent inflationary pressures and prevent a USD collapse, Gold will drop initially, but will still maintain well above its long term trend line and continue to go higher even as Fed increase rates. The Fed will soon find themselves unable to contain high inflation. At one point, the continual increase in interest rates to prevent inflation will soon turn out to be creating contraction and disaster to the economy. That's when the 1929 depression style economy will set in. When that happens, look for Gold to peak as the traders prepare for a turn to lower interest rates again.

Bank holiday coming soon

Is a bank holiday coming soon ? Circulating around the internet are news that a FDR bank holiday is approaching.

Abstract from marketwatch.com

In its current issue, HSL reports rumors that "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

HSL's suspicion: "Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

The Amero - is it real ?

The alleged replacement of the US dollar, Canadian loonie and Mexican Peso with Amero raises eyebrows. Just like Euro which is the common currency of the European Union, the Amero has been rumoured to be the currency for North American Union, consisting of United States, Mexico and Canada. This is supposedly the agenda to be one step closer to UN dreams of a one world government.

The amero coins and bills has already been printed, though its announced to be more of a collective nature rather than real currency.
Try googling up amero, and you'll find plenty of news on it.

I've been thinking about the US debt. Their debt is probably going parabolic, the government is not a bunch of stupid people. They know what they are doing. The huge and perhaps, unrecoverable debt makes the dollar worthless. If, assuming the rumours are real, and that the powers will be creating a new currency to replace the greenback, then it makes sense to chalk up a mountain of debt. Since you're not going to repay your debts in dollar anyway. So you spend and spend, buy and buy...

I've no idea if its true. Time will tell.

Asia (China ?) has been agressively buying Gold & Silver. Both these precious metals have finally broken out and up of its diagonal triangle, so this means the short term direction is up, targetting a Gold target of above $1000. As for Silver, its still below its all time high of $21, lets hope it can reach that level soon.

As stated in my previous posts, will Gold & Silver follow the deflationary trend in equities ? My guess is no at this point of time, because I suspect the upcoming tsunami will be triggered off by public's confidence in our very existing monetary and fiat currency system. The currency storm.

The bear may have begun

SPX may have topped at 1039, close to the pivot 1041.

It is now trading at 1000, lets watch if it can maintain support at 990 level. If it doesnt and the wave looks strong and impulsive, this increases the possibility that the bear has resumed.

VIX on the other hand, has maintained a bullish momentum and broken out of its descending wedge. This is very bullish, especially with a positive divergence and RSI. Of important interest, is that the divergence has been forming since October. Its been building a 1 year base. And because of this, I have been mainting a bearish outlook on the markets and do not believe in the recovery story painted by the media.

As noted by Atilla in his blog, some giant options player has betted on a bloody November. Call options at VIX 40 is being bought. This means some very very huge player is betting a volatile market then.

China is now back in a bear market status. The other markets should start to peak and roll over.

Little thoughts on Swine Flu

Somehow, my brain cells was in hibernation mode this afternoon. So to prevent it from going into full hibernating mode, I did some readings on H1N1 Swine Flu. Partly because I was going to US soon and more importantly, there was a warning from health authorities that the swine flu epidemic may run its peak in the fall season and will affect 30% of the US population. That's a awful lot.

So here it is again. I am skeptical of almost everything even though on the surface, I may appear to agree. Including the wild conspiracy theories of the New World Order etc etc. But sometimes, I do read a bit to gain an insight to both sides of the equation. Truth comes from skeptical questioning and real understanding.

I was particularly concerned when I saw Baxter had patented the H1N1 vaccine in 2007. That was 2 years before this virus infected the human population. The media reported that the source of virus came from pigs. And so, how in the world can this vaccine be created and patented then ? Unless, it was either deliberate or by mistake, that the virus was already experimented and created in the laboratories and somehow got to the outside world. And worse still, this vaccine may be contaminated with the deadly H5N1 avian flu virus. Inject with caution is the word. Gosh, sometimes I really hate myself for being too inquiring.

Animals. When can we ever learn to love them with respect and care. They are always the scapegoat for human errors because they cannot fend and fight for themselves.

An abstract from "The Liberty Voice".

"Baxter has been chosen by the WHO to head up efforts to produce a vaccine for the Mexican swine flu that is spreading throughout the U.S. and Europe.

The decision was made despite further revelations last month that vaccines contaminated with deadly live H5N1 avian flu virus were recently distributed to 18 countries by a lab at an Austrian branch of Baxter.

Initially, the company attempted to stonewall questions by invoking “trade secrets” and refused to reveal how the vaccines were contaminated with H5N1. After increased pressure they then claimed that pure H5N1 batches were sent by accident.

However, the probability of mixing a live virus biological weapon with vaccine material by accident is virtually impossible."

Read on. Copied from Case about bird flu

Off to the final race

Last night, SPX busted through 1018 easily, the activity surely resembles a wave 3. From my last post, I mentioned SPX need to exceed 1013 quickly else the momentum will be to the downside. It surely fulfilled this yesterday. So now with the structure clearer, we can narrow our probabilities. The H&S formation of SPX has been cancelled, but the triangle of Gold/Silver remains. Short term target is US$1085 for Gold if it breaks to the upside. However, it will best to stay neutral at the moment and not second guess the direction. Remember, a breakout from a symmetrical triangle can go either way.

SPX is now in the final upleg. There are 2 possibilities here.

1. Its in major wave 3 of C of C. We should expect a weak corrective wave 4 and a final rally to SPX 1041 to complete the entire rally from March lows. Major resistance remains at 1044. The great bear should resume thereafter.

2. Its in minute 3 of major 1 of C of C. This paints a more bullish target of Dow 10k and SPX1121, a 50% retracement before the bear resumes.

We will know by then if the market has topped. The reversal will be strong and violent, befitting of the status called "Great Bear".

Watch for negative divergences on the RSI/MACD of weekly charts as prices make a new high.

As prices makes new highs while volume is decreasing, distribution is also going on silently as institutions and big boys unload their holdings to retail investors. Be careful not to be the one to carry the last bag.