Good articles for reading

Here are some good articles to spend your weekend away.

1. Martin Armstrong July 10 article on "The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy - The Real Dark Pool"


2. Martin Armstrong article "It's Just Time".
This articles talks about his Economic Confidence Model and PI cycles. Included are also topics on Kondratieff Wave, Gann's Fibonacci and the Mayan mystery.


3. Kondratieff Long Waves
The Long Waves follow a cycle of 60 years. And its broken up into 4 phases from Spring to Winter, each lasting approximately 20 years (plus-minus). Many who studied the K-Waves believed we are currently in the Winter-K wave phase. A K-wave winter is characterized by a three year collapse, followed by a 15 year deflationary work out period. Quite coincidently, the Long Depression featured in an earlier post on KV, was a good example of a K-wave winter, as was the Great Depression of the 1930's. This period also seems to coincide with the attributes of Pluto in Capricon (2008-2023).

The original translated 1926 paper.


4. Elliot Waves Theory by R.N. Elliot
This is the core of my trading techniques. I used both EW and technical analysis in my evaluation of stock market trends. Using this theory, bull markets follows 5 waves, and bear markets 3 corrective waves. The degree of each wave determines the depth of correction and whether there will be sub-waves within each major wave. We have supercycle, cyclical, primary, major, minor, minute waves (from the largest degree to smallest). E Waves do not forecast or have the ability to pinpoint exact tops or bottoms, rather its more into knowing at which the trend of the current market and highlight probabilities of certain pivots and turning points. Together with technical analysis and fibonacci guidelines, it enhances a trader's ability to forecast with greater accuracy. E waves can be confusing, because people using them have different perspectives on the markets. If one believes we are in a supercycle degree correction right now, the targets for the bottom of the stock market will differ from someone who thinks we are merely going through a cyclical correction. The theory is never wrong, however the ones who use them are, hence counts are frequently altered. Even Bob Pretcher, the founder of Elliot Wave International were years early in his famous bear call and missed out the boom years from 2003-2007.

He marked year 2000 as the peak of stock markets. Following the NASDAQ bubble and dotcom crash, the US markets underwent a bear correction from 2000-2002. The bull years from 2003-2007 were not confirmed by DOW Transports. According to Dow Theory, non-confirmation is a warning signal. And if we view the SPX/DOW in real terms, he was right on. The stock markets were firing up in these years and so was silent inflation. If we measure the SPX or DOW in terms of gold, real growth peaked in 2000. The years thereafter were fuelled by low interest rates and inflationary growth.